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ECOWAS at 50: President Obasanjo Warns of Declining Trust and Growing Divisions at Oxford Forum

A high-level forum marking the 50th anniversary of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) convened at the University of Oxford this week, drawing former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, Ghana’s Acting High Commissioner, and a representative of the Burkinabè diaspora among its featured speakers.

The event brought together students, scholars, and political figures to reflect on ECOWAS’s legacy, once hailed as a model for regional integration in Africa, and its increasingly uncertain future. The forum was facilitated and moderated by Ryan Cauwenberghs, an MSc student in African Studies at the University of Oxford. Having worked in various capacities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, and Togo, Cauwenberghs brings a deep understanding of the region. His academic and professional interests focus on security dynamics, societal structures, and international relations in Central and West Africa.

Delivering the keynote address, Obasanjo, a founding architect of ECOWAS, offered a sobering assessment. He recalled early efforts to advance free movement, trade integration, and pan-African solidarity, but warned that those gains now hang in the balance.

“The trust that once existed among West African leaders is eroding,” Obasanjo said. “Without cooperation and committed leadership, the region cannot move forward.”
His remarks came amid growing concern over regional instability and the rise of competing alliances such as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed in defiance of ECOWAS by military-led governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Echoing Obasanjo’s concerns, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed pointed to a deeper malaise afflicting the regional body: poor governance, a deficit of trust, and weak institutional accountability.

“These failures are not abstract—they impact people’s lives every day,” he told the audience.

Mohammed, a former senator and now a sitting governor in Nigeria’s northwest, highlighted reform efforts in his state as a case study in responsive governance. He said his administration prioritises transparency, local empowerment, and a leadership culture rooted in accountability—principles he urged ECOWAS to embrace if it is to survive another half-century.

The forum closed with a renewed call for regional solidarity, though the tone was markedly sombre. As the organisation enters its sixth decade, the challenge for ECOWAS, participants agreed, will be not only preserving its foundational ideals, but adapting them to a rapidly shifting political landscape.

Africa

AfCFTA Aims to Unite Africa’s Fragmented Markets Into a Single Trading Bloc

The African Continental Free Trade Area, known as the AfCFTA, brings together all 55 member states of the African Union into a single trading bloc, an effort to knit together one of the world’s most fragmented markets. By lowering barriers across eight regional economic communities, the agreement is intended to allow goods and services to move more freely across borders, strengthening Africa’s position in global trade.

Economists say the pact could significantly reshape commerce within the continent. Estimates suggest that eliminating import duties alone could increase intra-African trade by more than 50 percent, with even larger gains possible if governments also address non-tariff barriers such as customs delays and regulatory hurdles.

For many businesses, the current system remains paradoxical: exporting within Africa is often more expensive than trading with partners outside the continent, with average tariffs hovering around 6.1 percent. The agreement aims to reverse that dynamic by gradually reducing these costs, opening access to a larger and more integrated market.

Over the longer term, proponents argue, the AfCFTA could help drive structural transformation. Some projections suggest that, if fully implemented, it could expand Africa’s combined economic output to as much as $29 trillion by mid-century, though much will depend on how effectively member states follow through on reforms.

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Africa

Republic of Congo’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, 83, Secures Fifth Term in Power

The Republic of Congo’s president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, was sworn in this week after securing a fifth consecutive term, extending a rule that now spans nearly 42 years. Provisional results announced on Tuesday by the officials put his share of the vote at 94.82% on Sunday’s poll — a margin that, while striking, had been widely anticipated.

The official turnout figure, 84.65%, raised immediate questions. State television reported high participation, yet scenes from polling stations in the capital, Brazzaville, suggested a more subdued reality, with many centres registering thin crowds or none at all. The discrepancy has reinforced longstanding doubts about the transparency of the electoral process.

 

President Denis Sassou Nguesso casts his vote at a polling station in Brazzaville during the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, 15 March 2026. [Congo Presidency/Handout via Reuters]

President Denis Sassou Nguesso casts his vote at a polling station in Brazzaville during the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, 15 March 2026. [Congo Presidency/Handout via Reuters]

At 82, Sassou Nguesso entered the race as the dominant political force, facing six relatively unknown challengers. Analysts and diplomats had predicted an easy victory, citing both the imbalance of resources and the broader political environment. During the campaign, the president alone conducted a nationwide tour, projecting visibility and control, while his rivals struggled to gain traction.

The election unfolded against the backdrop of an opposition boycott. Two key parties withdrew, alleging unfair conditions, while prominent figures such as General Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko and André Okombi Salissa — both imprisoned for nearly a decade — were absent from the contest. Their exclusion further narrowed an already limited field.

Restrictions in the run-up to the vote added to concerns. Internet access was cut, as has become routine during presidential elections, and movement across Brazzaville was constrained. Human rights groups reported arrests of activists, the suspension of opposition parties and tight monitoring of public gatherings, contributing to what critics describe as a climate of repression.

These dynamics reflect deeper structural patterns. Since returning to power after the 1997 civil war, Sassou Nguesso has consolidated control over state institutions. A 2015 constitutional referendum removed age and term limits, enabling him to extend his tenure and further entrench incumbency.

Yet the political continuity contrasts sharply with the country’s economic fragility. Despite significant oil and mineral wealth, the Republic of Congo remains heavily indebted. According to the World Bank, public debt stands at around 94.5% of gross domestic product, underscoring the persistent gap between resource revenues and broader development outcomes.

The scale of Sassou Nguesso’s victory, combined with the conditions under which it was secured, is likely to deepen scrutiny of both the electoral framework and the prospects for political pluralism. As the new term begins, questions around governance, economic management and eventual succession remain unresolved, even as the contours of power appear largely unchanged.

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Burkina Faso Dissolves NGOs in Push for State Sovereignty, Said Ibrahim Traore Amid Rising tensions with civil society

Burkina Faso’s military authorities have ordered the dissolution of more than 100 civil society organisations, in a sweeping move that rights groups say marks a deepening assault on fundamental freedoms.

The decree, announced on Wednesday by the Ministry of Territorial Administration, mandates the closure of 118 associations and non-governmental organisations and prohibits their activities, citing compliance with existing legal provisions. Many of the affected groups are engaged in human rights advocacy.

The decision represents the latest step in a broader tightening of political space under the junta led by Ibrahim Traoré, which seized power in a 2022 coup and has since moved to curb opposition, trade unions and public assembly.

In recent months, the government has escalated its campaign against organised civil society. A law introduced last year imposed new restrictions on the operations of rights groups, followed by suspensions and revocations of permits for dozens of organisations on administrative grounds. Earlier this year, political parties were formally dissolved after a prolonged suspension.

Officials have framed the measures as necessary to enforce regulatory compliance, with territorial administration minister Emile Zerbo warning that any breach of the new rules would be met with legal sanctions.

Human rights organisations have sharply criticised the move. Amnesty International described the dissolutions as a “flagrant attack” on freedom of association and warned of an intensifying crackdown on civic space in the Sahel state.

Analysts see the latest decree as part of a broader strategy to consolidate authority and limit dissent, as the government continues to confront a protracted insurgency linked to groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Authorities have repeatedly accused some internationally funded organisations of acting as conduits for foreign interference, a claim civil society actors strongly deny.

The dissolutions underscore the increasingly fraught relationship between the state and civil society in Burkina Faso, where the boundaries of political participation continue to narrow under military rule.

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