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Can Winnie Odinga Win ODM’s Hearts?

Winnie Odinga’s political positioning reflects a deliberate attempt to reconcile two competing forces within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM): the entrenched authority of legacy leadership embodied by Raila Odinga, and mounting pressure from a politically assertive, increasingly disillusioned youth constituency.

Her role in the East African Legislative Assembly provides regional stature, but her domestic challenge is institutional. She is not merely amplifying youth rhetoric; she is attempting to re-engineer ODM’s functional identity—from a historically anchored opposition vehicle into a platform capable of absorbing generational demands, particularly those of Gen Z voters focused on unemployment, governance deficits, and political inclusion.

 

Winnie Odinga- Member of East African Legislative Party (EALP), attending ODM's rally.

Winnie Odinga- Picture @ODM’s rally.

This intervention comes at a structurally sensitive moment. The Odinga family’s consolidation of control at the March 26 Special Delegates Convention signals organisational continuity, yet also reveals internal fragilities. ODM’s cohesion is increasingly contingent, with latent factionalism posing a credible threat to its electoral durability. Within this framework, Winnie Odinga’s outreach operates as both renewal strategy and pre-emptive stabilisation.

The ambiguity of ODM’s relationship with President William Ruto further complicates this recalibration. For younger constituencies, perceived proximity to executive power dilutes ODM’s oppositional credibility and creates ideological inconsistency. A party positioning itself as a counterweight to government while engaging in tacit alignment risks strategic incoherence. Winnie Odinga’s framing implicitly recognises this contradiction, though it remains politically sensitive to address directly.

Her intervention at the Linda Ground Special Delegates Convention sharpened this positioning. By elevating grassroots grievances—particularly from unemployed graduates—she reframed youth disengagement as a systemic failure of party architecture rather than generational apathy. Her critique of performative participation—limited to rallies and mobilisation—targets a structural feature of Kenyan party politics: the extraction of youth energy without corresponding inclusion in decision-making.

Her call for a “new ODM” was explicit in its direction. She urged the party to revert to its foundational ethos as a platform for the marginalised, while embedding youth participation within policy formulation and internal negotiations. This framing moves beyond symbolic inclusion toward institutional redesign—an agenda that, if implemented, would materially alter intra-party power distribution.

However, alignment with youth sentiment does not automatically convert into durable political capital. Three structural constraints remain.

First, dynastic optics. Operating within the Odinga political lineage confers visibility but also reinforces perceptions of elite continuity. Among Gen Z voters sceptical of inherited power, this creates a credibility threshold that reformist messaging alone may not overcome.

Second, institutional inertia within ODM. Senior figures, including Oburu Oginga, have signalled openness, particularly following his elevation within party leadership. Yet absent formal mechanisms—such as youth representation quotas or participatory policy frameworks—these assurances risk remaining declarative rather than operational.

Third, unresolved strategic positioning vis-à-vis the Ruto administration. Without a clearly defined stance, ODM’s internal messaging—especially to politically conscious youth—remains fragmented. A constituency oriented toward accountability is unlikely to respond to ambiguity on whether the party is oppositional or accommodative.

Analytically, Winnie Odinga’s political project is viable but conditional. Its success hinges on her capacity to translate discursive advocacy into institutional reform, while constructing a leadership identity that is distinct from, rather than derivative of, the broader Odinga legacy.

Her intervention has nonetheless catalysed a substantive debate about ODM’s future trajectory and the role of youth within Kenya’s political system. The outcome of this internal contest—between continuity and adaptation—will determine whether ODM can remain electorally relevant in an environment increasingly shaped by generational politics.

Africa

AfCFTA Aims to Unite Africa’s Fragmented Markets Into a Single Trading Bloc

The African Continental Free Trade Area, known as the AfCFTA, brings together all 55 member states of the African Union into a single trading bloc, an effort to knit together one of the world’s most fragmented markets. By lowering barriers across eight regional economic communities, the agreement is intended to allow goods and services to move more freely across borders, strengthening Africa’s position in global trade.

Economists say the pact could significantly reshape commerce within the continent. Estimates suggest that eliminating import duties alone could increase intra-African trade by more than 50 percent, with even larger gains possible if governments also address non-tariff barriers such as customs delays and regulatory hurdles.

For many businesses, the current system remains paradoxical: exporting within Africa is often more expensive than trading with partners outside the continent, with average tariffs hovering around 6.1 percent. The agreement aims to reverse that dynamic by gradually reducing these costs, opening access to a larger and more integrated market.

Over the longer term, proponents argue, the AfCFTA could help drive structural transformation. Some projections suggest that, if fully implemented, it could expand Africa’s combined economic output to as much as $29 trillion by mid-century, though much will depend on how effectively member states follow through on reforms.

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Africa

Republic of Congo’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, 83, Secures Fifth Term in Power

The Republic of Congo’s president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, was sworn in this week after securing a fifth consecutive term, extending a rule that now spans nearly 42 years. Provisional results announced on Tuesday by the officials put his share of the vote at 94.82% on Sunday’s poll — a margin that, while striking, had been widely anticipated.

The official turnout figure, 84.65%, raised immediate questions. State television reported high participation, yet scenes from polling stations in the capital, Brazzaville, suggested a more subdued reality, with many centres registering thin crowds or none at all. The discrepancy has reinforced longstanding doubts about the transparency of the electoral process.

 

President Denis Sassou Nguesso casts his vote at a polling station in Brazzaville during the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, 15 March 2026. [Congo Presidency/Handout via Reuters]

President Denis Sassou Nguesso casts his vote at a polling station in Brazzaville during the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, 15 March 2026. [Congo Presidency/Handout via Reuters]

At 82, Sassou Nguesso entered the race as the dominant political force, facing six relatively unknown challengers. Analysts and diplomats had predicted an easy victory, citing both the imbalance of resources and the broader political environment. During the campaign, the president alone conducted a nationwide tour, projecting visibility and control, while his rivals struggled to gain traction.

The election unfolded against the backdrop of an opposition boycott. Two key parties withdrew, alleging unfair conditions, while prominent figures such as General Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko and André Okombi Salissa — both imprisoned for nearly a decade — were absent from the contest. Their exclusion further narrowed an already limited field.

Restrictions in the run-up to the vote added to concerns. Internet access was cut, as has become routine during presidential elections, and movement across Brazzaville was constrained. Human rights groups reported arrests of activists, the suspension of opposition parties and tight monitoring of public gatherings, contributing to what critics describe as a climate of repression.

These dynamics reflect deeper structural patterns. Since returning to power after the 1997 civil war, Sassou Nguesso has consolidated control over state institutions. A 2015 constitutional referendum removed age and term limits, enabling him to extend his tenure and further entrench incumbency.

Yet the political continuity contrasts sharply with the country’s economic fragility. Despite significant oil and mineral wealth, the Republic of Congo remains heavily indebted. According to the World Bank, public debt stands at around 94.5% of gross domestic product, underscoring the persistent gap between resource revenues and broader development outcomes.

The scale of Sassou Nguesso’s victory, combined with the conditions under which it was secured, is likely to deepen scrutiny of both the electoral framework and the prospects for political pluralism. As the new term begins, questions around governance, economic management and eventual succession remain unresolved, even as the contours of power appear largely unchanged.

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Burkina Faso Dissolves NGOs in Push for State Sovereignty, Said Ibrahim Traore Amid Rising tensions with civil society

Burkina Faso’s military authorities have ordered the dissolution of more than 100 civil society organisations, in a sweeping move that rights groups say marks a deepening assault on fundamental freedoms.

The decree, announced on Wednesday by the Ministry of Territorial Administration, mandates the closure of 118 associations and non-governmental organisations and prohibits their activities, citing compliance with existing legal provisions. Many of the affected groups are engaged in human rights advocacy.

The decision represents the latest step in a broader tightening of political space under the junta led by Ibrahim Traoré, which seized power in a 2022 coup and has since moved to curb opposition, trade unions and public assembly.

In recent months, the government has escalated its campaign against organised civil society. A law introduced last year imposed new restrictions on the operations of rights groups, followed by suspensions and revocations of permits for dozens of organisations on administrative grounds. Earlier this year, political parties were formally dissolved after a prolonged suspension.

Officials have framed the measures as necessary to enforce regulatory compliance, with territorial administration minister Emile Zerbo warning that any breach of the new rules would be met with legal sanctions.

Human rights organisations have sharply criticised the move. Amnesty International described the dissolutions as a “flagrant attack” on freedom of association and warned of an intensifying crackdown on civic space in the Sahel state.

Analysts see the latest decree as part of a broader strategy to consolidate authority and limit dissent, as the government continues to confront a protracted insurgency linked to groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Authorities have repeatedly accused some internationally funded organisations of acting as conduits for foreign interference, a claim civil society actors strongly deny.

The dissolutions underscore the increasingly fraught relationship between the state and civil society in Burkina Faso, where the boundaries of political participation continue to narrow under military rule.

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